After several years of whiplash-inducing highs and lows, the U.S. trucking industry is once again facing a major test. For the second consecutive year, freight volumes are down across the board—spot and contract loads, tonnage indices, and even rail intermodal numbers are all trending negative. The warning signs are everywhere: more empty miles, falling rates, and a growing sense of uncertainty about what comes next.
Are we entering a new trucking recession? What’s driving the persistent decline in freight, and how should carriers, drivers, and shippers prepare for an extended downturn? In this article, we’ll dive deep into the numbers, unpack the economic and operational realities, and provide actionable strategies for fleets and owner-operators to weather the storm—and emerge stronger on the other side.
The Numbers: How Bad Is It?
The latest data from the American Trucking Associations (ATA), Cass Freight Index, and leading load boards paint a sobering picture for 2025:
National truck tonnage is down nearly 7% year-over-year by the third quarter. Spot market load postings have dropped by 15% compared to 2023. Contract freight volumes, while more stable, are also declining. Rail intermodal, often a bellwether for truck freight, is flat or negative. Meanwhile, used truck inventories are rising fast, and resale prices have fallen by 20% since their 2022 peak.
For many carriers, especially small and midsize fleets—this means fewer loads, lower rates, and more empty miles. The financial pain is real, and the pressure to adapt is mounting.
What’s Behind the Decline?
Economic Headwinds
The broader U.S. economy has cooled after the post-pandemic boom. High interest rates, persistent inflation, and global uncertainty have all contributed to softer consumer and business spending. Sectors like housing, manufacturing, and retail are all running cooler than just two years ago.
Inventory Corrections
Retailers and manufacturers, having been burned by the supply chain chaos of 2021–22, are now running leaner. Many are spreading orders across more carriers and shifting to just-in-time logistics, which means fewer urgent, high-volume shipments and more predictable but smaller loads.
Shifting Consumer Behavior
After years of pandemic restrictions, Americans are spending less on goods and more on services, travel, dining, and experiences. E-commerce growth has slowed, and big-ticket purchases like furniture and vehicles are down.
Overcapacity
Fleets responded to the previous boom by adding trucks, trailers, and drivers, resulting in a glut. Now, with too many trucks chasing too few loads, competition is fierce and shippers have the upper hand.
Global Trade and Tariff Uncertainty
Ongoing trade disputes, new tariffs, and geopolitical tensions have disrupted international supply chains, making imports and exports less predictable and impacting both port drayage and long-haul trucking.
Sector and Regional Impacts
The freight slump isn’t uniform, some sectors and regions are faring better than others.
Stronger Sectors: Food and beverage freight has remained relatively stable, as demand for perishables endures. Pharmaceuticals and medical supplies continue to see steady, if not growing, regional distribution. In certain regions, infrastructure projects and energy activity (especially in Texas and the Southeast) are keeping freight moving.
Weaker Sectors: Retail and e-commerce have dropped from pandemic highs, particularly for non-essential goods. Building materials and automotive are both down, hit by high interest rates and slowing demand. Intermodal and port drayage are feeling the effects of lower import/export volumes and global shipping disruptions.
Regional Notes: Texas and the Southeast are doing better, thanks to population growth, port activity, and diversified economies. The Midwest and Northeast, more exposed to manufacturing slowdowns and retail softness, are struggling. The West Coast is still dealing with the aftershocks of previous port congestion and shifting trade patterns.
Are We in a Trucking Recession?
By many measures, yes. A trucking recession typically involves declining freight volumes, falling rates, rising bankruptcies, and excess capacity. All of these are present in the 2025 market.
Bankruptcies among small carriers are up 30% over 2024, and some larger fleets are consolidating or exiting certain markets. Fleets are cutting back on hiring, reducing miles, and offering fewer incentives to drivers. Orders for new trucks and trailers have plummeted, with many fleets running older equipment longer. Spot market rates are at their lowest since 2019, and competition for every load is fierce.
This matters because trucking is a bellwether for the broader economy. When freight slows, it often signals trouble ahead for manufacturing, retail, and GDP growth. Conversely, a rebound in freight is usually one of the first signs of economic recovery.
What Does This Mean for Fleets and Drivers?
With more trucks than loads, shippers are in the driver’s seat. Contract rates are being renegotiated downward, and spot rates are under constant pressure. For many carriers, especially those who expanded rapidly during the boom, margins are razor-thin or negative.
Fleets are expanding their service offerings, chasing new customer segments, and fighting to retain existing business. Some are diversifying into final-mile delivery, dedicated contracts, or specialized freight to stay afloat.
Driver hiring has slowed, and some fleets are reducing hours, shifting drivers to part-time, or cutting bonuses. While the driver shortage is less acute, retention remains a challenge, especially as pay and benefits come under scrutiny.
With deferred purchases, fleets are running older trucks longer. This increases maintenance costs and the risk of breakdowns, putting a premium on preventive maintenance and warranty management.
How Are Leading Fleets Responding?
Cost Control: Every dollar counts. Fleets are renegotiating fuel contracts, consolidating vendors, and investing in technology to optimize routes and reduce empty miles. Telematics, predictive maintenance, and digital freight platforms are helping squeeze more value from every asset.
Diversification: Successful carriers are expanding into new commodities, customer segments, or regions. Some are adding intermodal, refrigerated, or hazmat capabilities. Others are building relationships with brokers and 3PLs to access a wider pool of loads.
Customer Focus: With competition fierce, service matters more than ever. Fleets are communicating proactively, offering flexible solutions, and investing in customer relationships to lock in business and avoid being dropped for a cheaper competitor.
Scenario Planning: The best-run fleets are running “what if” scenarios to prepare for further declines, customer losses, or economic shocks. Having a plan for layoffs, asset sales, or market exits is critical for survival.
Technology Investment: Digital transformation is accelerating. Fleets are adopting AI-powered dispatch, automated billing, and real-time visibility tools. Data analytics help identify inefficiencies, monitor performance, and make smarter decisions about pricing, routing, and asset utilization.
What Should Owner-Operators and Small Fleets Do?
The risks are higher for small players, but so are the rewards for those who adapt. Watch costs relentlessly, avoid cheap loads that don’t cover expenses, and build direct relationships with shippers whenever possible. Stay flexible, be willing to change lanes or haul new commodities, and consider relocating to stronger markets if needed. Invest in maintenance to avoid costly breakdowns, and network with other small carriers to share information and pool resources.
When Will Freight Recover?
Most industry analysts predict that freight volumes will remain soft through at least mid-2026. Recovery will depend on lower interest rates, a rebound in consumer and business spending, stabilization of global trade, and continued population growth and infrastructure investment—especially in the Sun Belt. When recovery comes, it’s likely to be gradual, with pockets of strength emerging before a broad-based rebound.
Opportunities Amid the Downturn
Downturns are tough, but they also create opportunities for well-prepared fleets. Weaker competitors may exit, creating chances to buy assets or win new customers. More drivers and staff are available as other fleets shrink. Lower volumes can be a good time to implement new systems and processes. Fleets that deliver reliable service in tough times will be rewarded with loyalty when the market rebounds.
Conclusion
Freight volumes are down, rates are falling, and the industry is feeling the strain. But trucking has always been cyclical, and those who adapt, by controlling costs, diversifying services, and investing in people and technology, will survive and thrive in the next cycle. Stay informed, stay flexible, and remember: every downturn is followed by a recovery. The fleets that plan for the worst and position for the best will lead the way when freight starts to roll again.
