The U.S. trucking industry has always been a bellwether for the broader economy. When freight moves, the economy grows; when it slows, warning lights flash across the supply chain. In 2023, those warning lights were blinding. The industry faced one of its toughest years in recent memory, marked by a freight recession, excess capacity, collapsing spot rates, and a wave of bankruptcies and consolidations.
Now, as 2025 unfolds, ACT Research—the industry’s leading source for data-driven forecasts—signals that rebalancing is underway. The worst appears to be over, but the road to recovery is long, winding, and shaped by new pressures: persistently high interest rates, stubborn inventory overhangs, and a freight market still searching for equilibrium. For fleets, shippers, and investors, understanding the nuances of this transition is critical for making smart, strategic decisions in the months ahead.
This in-depth article breaks down ACT Research’s 2025 industry forecast, unpacks the factors driving the slow recovery, and explores what “rebalancing” really means for the future of trucking in America.
The 2023 Downturn: A Year the Industry Won’t Forget
To understand where trucking is headed, it’s essential to revisit the challenges of 2023. That year, the industry hit a low point that few anticipated:
Freight Recession
After a pandemic-fueled boom in 2021 and 2022, freight demand fell sharply as consumer spending shifted, inventories piled up, and supply chains recalibrated. Trucking companies that had expanded rapidly found themselves with too many trucks and not enough freight.
Spot Rate Collapse
Spot rates for dry van, refrigerated, and flatbed freight plummeted, in many cases falling below carriers’ operating costs. Contract rates followed suit, though with a lag, putting further pressure on margins.
Capacity Glut and Bankruptcies
The rush to add trucks and drivers during the boom years resulted in a significant overhang of capacity. As freight volumes shrank, small and midsize carriers were hit hardest, with many forced to exit the market or sell assets at a loss.
Rising Costs
Diesel prices remained volatile, insurance premiums climbed, and wages continued to rise amid a tight labor market. At the same time, interest rates surged to levels not seen in decades, making equipment financing and operating loans more expensive.
Inventory Overhang
Retailers and manufacturers, burned by pandemic shortages, overcorrected by stockpiling inventory. As demand cooled, warehouses filled up, and the need for inbound freight dwindled.
The result was a perfect storm: too many trucks, not enough freight, and shrinking margins industry-wide.
The 2025 Outlook: Signs of Rebalancing
According to ACT Research’s 2025 forecast, the trucking industry is finally moving past its nadir, but the recovery will be slow and uneven. Here’s what’s shaping the landscape:
Gradual Demand Recovery
Freight demand is expected to grow modestly in 2025, driven by steady (if unspectacular) consumer spending, a rebound in manufacturing output, and ongoing infrastructure investments. E-commerce continues to be a bright spot, though growth has normalized from its pandemic highs.
High Interest Rates Are the New Normal
The Federal Reserve’s efforts to tame inflation have kept interest rates elevated. While this has cooled inflation, it also means the cost of financing trucks, trailers, and facilities remains high. Fleets are holding onto equipment longer, deferring new purchases, and focusing on maximizing utilization of existing assets.
Inventory Correction in Progress
The inventory glut that plagued the industry in 2023 is slowly working its way through the system. Retailers and manufacturers are adopting just-in-time strategies again, but caution remains. As inventories normalize, demand for freight services is expected to stabilize, supporting a more balanced market.
Capacity Rationalization
The wave of bankruptcies and fleet exits in 2023 and 2024 has removed significant excess capacity from the market. ACT Research notes that this process is ongoing, with further consolidation likely as weaker players struggle to adapt to the new environment.
Rate Stabilization
Spot and contract rates are expected to find a floor in 2025, with some lanes already seeing modest upward pressure as capacity tightens. However, rates are unlikely to return to the highs of the pandemic era anytime soon.
Key Data Points from ACT Research’s 2025 Forecast
- Freight volumes: Projected to rise 2–3% year-over-year, a marked improvement from the declines of 2023 but still below long-term averages.
- Truckload capacity: Continues to shrink as older equipment is retired and marginal carriers exit the market.
- Equipment orders: Remain subdued due to high interest rates, but pent-up replacement demand is building for 2026 and beyond.
- Spot rates: Stabilizing, with some regional variation; contract rates expected to lag but follow a similar trend.
- Carrier profitability: Improving slightly as rates firm up and costs stabilize, but margins remain tight for all but the most efficient operators.
Industry Voices: What Fleets and Shippers Are Saying
Fleet Perspective
Most fleet executives echo ACT’s cautious optimism. The worst appears to be over, but nobody expects a return to the “easy money” days of 2021–2022. Instead, the focus is on:
- Lean operations and cost control
- Maximizing asset utilization and uptime
- Investing selectively in technology and driver retention
- Carefully timing equipment purchases to avoid overpaying in a high-rate environment
Shipper Perspective
Shippers are enjoying a more balanced market after years of tight capacity and surging rates. Many are renegotiating contracts, diversifying carrier relationships, and leveraging technology for better visibility and efficiency. However, they’re also watching for signs of tightening capacity and potential rate hikes.
The Role of Interest Rates: A New Headwind
High interest rates are arguably the biggest structural change shaping the trucking industry’s recovery. For decades, fleets could rely on cheap financing to expand, upgrade, and weather downturns. Now, every new truck or trailer comes with a much higher monthly payment, and working capital is more expensive to secure.
This has several ripple effects:
- Deferred equipment purchases: Fleets are holding onto trucks longer, increasing maintenance costs but avoiding new debt.
- Used equipment market: Demand for late-model used trucks is strong, but prices remain elevated due to limited supply.
- Barriers to entry: New entrants and small carriers face higher hurdles, accelerating consolidation and favoring well-capitalized players.
Inventory Dynamics: From Glut to Balance
The inventory overhang that defined 2023 is slowly receding. Retailers and manufacturers are now more cautious, using data analytics and supply chain technology to avoid overstocking. As inventories normalize, freight demand is expected to stabilize, supporting a more predictable operating environment for carriers and shippers alike.
Labor and Driver Market: A Persistent Challenge
Despite the downturn, the driver shortage remains a long-term challenge. Many older drivers retired during the pandemic, and recruiting new talent is tough amid a strong labor market. Fleets are investing in:
- Better pay and benefits
- Flexible schedules and home time options
- Training and career development
- Technology to make driving safer and less stressful
Automation and autonomous trucks are on the horizon, but meaningful impact is still several years away.
Technology and Efficiency: The Path Forward
With margins tight and growth slow, fleets are doubling down on technology to drive efficiency and profitability. Key areas of investment include:
- Telematics and fleet management systems: To maximize asset utilization and reduce downtime.
- Predictive maintenance: Using AI and analytics to prevent breakdowns and extend asset life.
- Energy-efficient routing: Optimizing routes for fuel savings and emissions reduction.
- Digital freight matching: Connecting with shippers and brokers more efficiently to fill empty miles.
Mergers, Acquisitions, and Market Consolidation
The shakeout of 2023–2024 has accelerated consolidation across the industry. Larger, well-capitalized carriers are acquiring smaller fleets, expanding market share, and gaining economies of scale. For shippers, this means fewer partners to manage but potentially less negotiating leverage.
The Outlook for 2025 and Beyond: Rebalancing, Not a Boom
ACT Research’s forecast is clear: the trucking industry is rebalancing, not booming. The era of rapid expansion is over, replaced by a period of caution, discipline, and strategic adaptation. Fleets that thrive will be those that:
- Focus relentlessly on efficiency and cost control
- Invest wisely in technology and talent
- Adapt quickly to changing market conditions
- Build resilient, flexible operations
For shippers, the new normal means more predictable rates and capacity, but less room for last-minute bargains. Relationships, transparency, and collaboration will be key.
Risks and Wildcards: What Could Change the Trajectory?
No forecast is set in stone. Several factors could accelerate or derail the industry’s recovery:
- Economic shocks: A recession, major policy change, or global disruption could dampen demand or spike costs.
- Fuel price volatility: Geopolitical events or supply chain disruptions could send diesel prices soaring again.
- Regulatory changes: New emissions standards, safety mandates, or labor rules could impact costs and operations.
- Technological breakthroughs: Widespread adoption of autonomous trucks, electric vehicles, or next-gen logistics platforms could reshape the industry faster than expected.
Conclusion: A New Era of Balance and Discipline
The trucking industry’s journey from the lows of 2023 to the gradual recovery of 2025 is a story of resilience, adaptation, and rebalancing. ACT Research’s forecast offers hope, but also a clear message: the path forward is one of slow, steady progress, not explosive growth.
For fleets, shippers, and industry stakeholders, the imperative is clear: embrace efficiency, invest in people and technology, and prepare for a future where success is measured not by rapid expansion, but by discipline, adaptability, and long-term value creation.
The road ahead may be challenging, but for those willing to evolve, the opportunities are real—and the journey is just beginning.
